September 11, 2008 09:49 PM UTC

Close Means Colorado Tips It

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• by: Precinct854

( – promoted by Colorado Pols)

It is Thursday after the Republican convention and I’m sensible enough to admit that McCain got a real convention bounce with staying power. I would like it to be otherwise, but I think the numbers are not lying to us.

The convention has resulted in him drawing even and pulling very slightly ahead of Obama. And this is true in enough polls that I believe on the national level McCain is ahead very slightly at this time.

There are fewer Colorado polls and they don’t all say the same thing. But it seems that Colorado is even closer than the rest of the country with Obama having a slight edge here.

What does this mean? Nothing. The vote is not today and polls are not votes. It just shows that right now the emotional message McCain is putting out is connecting and there is staying power to this story. It could be that the votes were always there and dispirited Republicans leaning voters were formerly reluctant to say that they were going to vote for a Republican again. Or it could be a genuine shift among working class white males. The whisper racism campaign by McCain surrogates could finally be reaching critical mass. Or it could be a failure to account for young voters being registered in large numbers. It could be some combination of all these things.

But the facts right now show McCain ahead with Colorado’s electoral votes potentially being the deciding vote.

FiveThirtyEight shows Colorado as their number 1 tipping point state. That is whatever candidate captures our votes most often wins their multiple simulations on how the polls show the campaign potentially coming down. Today’s Electoral Vote.Com map shows Obama winning with 273 thanks to Colorado and Nevada.

Essentially we’re one of the closest states and as long as the race is close we’re the most important state. Don’t expect that to last though. I predict change and that in a month we’ll all be on a new narrative. Why? Because the stories out right now don’t have enough to them to keep the new media’s interest for a whole month.